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NBA Betting Angle: After One-Point Loss

After coming up one point short in an NBA regular season contest teams should have a chip on their shoulder and come out looking to make a statement next time they hit the court.

In testing this theory, surprisingly teams do not always have the ability to bounce back after the aggravating event. In fact, since 2012 teams are just 77-98 straight-up, 76-95-4 against the betting line after being nipped by one point exact on the scoreboard.

Breaking those numbers down further, a consistent long term patterns that tells us to 'Play-On' any favorite running the hardwood against a team off a one point exact loss. That's because it will result in a money-making 63.4% hit rate as chalks are 59-33-1 ATS split between 42-21-2 ATS on home court, 17-12 ATS wearing road jersey's.

Although, a winning percentage of 60.0 is considered major success, we can improve the hit rate to a whopping 79.2% by 'Playing-On' any home chalk of -4.5 to -6.0 points facing a road team off a one point exact demoralizing effort (19-4-1 ATS).

NBA Betting Angle: Double Disadvantage It's understood that NBA teams play a lot of back-to-back games and are at a disadvantage when facing a rested team.

Playing a game the night after taking part in an NBA overtime contest is an even bigger disadvantage. This NBA hoops double disadvantage is clearly noted by the fact that since the start of the 2013-14 season unrested teams after an overtime effort the previous night facing a rested team win at a lowly 36.2% clip (21-37 SU). Even adding the great equalizer (spread) teams in the situation are not the best bets (27-31 ATS, 46.6%).

As you see, playing without rest after an overtime game the previous night is not something that most players care to take part in.

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Princeps date: 2018-02-15 (Thu) 19:30:28
Last-modified: 2018-02-15 (Thu) 19:30:28 (JST) (606d) by JackOliver